Who Will Win the Nobel Prize in Literature?

It’s October, and it’s not just the perfect weather to read great books but it’s also the time for announcement of the Nobel Prize in Literature. The countdown has already begun with the declaration of Nobel Prizes in Medicine and Physics. Although, no date has been formally announced yet but betting brokers expect it to on a Thursday, possibly 13th October. So, the literary circles are filled up with guesses as who might be the winner for this year’s Nobel Prize in Literature.

According to the latest data released by U.K. based betting website Ladbrokes, whose bidders have made some lucky guesses in the run-up to the prize in recent years, Haruki Murakami is leading the race with 4/1 odds, followed by Adunis with 6/1 odds. Ladbrokes comes up with the list by picking up from scoops from the literary circles, social media, literary blogs and other literary prizes.

Haruki Murakami – 4/1

Haruki Murakami has been the top favorite among the publishers for quite some years for the Nobel Prize. Somehow it continues to elude him. He is the top favorite this year for this year’s nobel prize. We just hope that he makes it this year. Not to mention that we, at fried eye are highly rooting for him.

Asked by one fan on his thoughts about being called the frontrunner for the Nobel Prize in Literature, Mr. Murakami said it was “quite annoying.”

“It isn’t like there’s an official shortlist, it’s just private bookmakers coming up with these odds. It’s not as if this were a horse race,” he replied

He is regarded as a kind of literary rockstar. Each of his books sells millions of copies and translated in many languages. So, in a way he doesn’t really need the recognition of the Nobel Prize to reach the readers world over.

Edit 10 October’2016 – His name is now in second position with 5/1

Adunis -6/1

Ali Ahmad Said Esber, also known by the pen name Adonis or Adunis is a Syrian poet, essayist and translator. Considered one of the most influential and dominant Arab poets of the modern era, Adonis, who has lived in exile in Paris since the 1960s, has been suggested as a worthy winner for more than a decade.

He was also in the top favorite list last year but this year he has climbed up the list. His name is being very frequently taken as top contender this year. He has an equal chance to win this year’s Nobel Prize.

Edit 10 October’2016 – He is now the third favorite with 6/1

Philip Roth – 7/1

Philip Milton Roth is considered as the greatest living American novelist. He first gained attention with the 1959 novella Goodbye, Columbus, an irreverent and humorous portrait of American Jewish life for which he received the U.S. National Book Award for Fiction. His profile rose significantly in 1969 after the publication of the controversial Portnoy’s Complaint. The book is a humorous and sexually explicit psychoanalytical monologue of “a lust-ridden, mother-addicted young Jewish bachelor,” filled with “intimate, shameful detail, and coarse, abusive language.”

His name is figuring in the top favorite list for last few years.

Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o – 10/1

Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o is a Kenyan writer, formerly working in English and now working in Gikuyu. His work includes novels, plays, short stories, and essays, ranging from literary and social criticism to children’s literature. His name has topped charts in recent years, the Kenyan author made his name in the English-speaking world in 1964 with “Weep not, Child,”. The novel is set against the backdrop of the Mau Mau rebellion. The author spent a year in prison in the 1970s, followed by some decades in exile, but returned to Kenya at the beginning of the 21st century.

His name has gone down the list of favorites this year for some reasons

Edit 10 October’2016 – Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o’s name now tops the list with 4/1

Joyce Carol Oates – 14/1

Joyce Carol Oates published her first book in 1963 and has since published over forty novels, as well as a number of plays and novellas, and many volumes of short stories, poetry, and nonfiction. She has won many awards for her writing, including the National Book Award, two O. Henry Awards, and the National Humanities Medal. Her novels Black Water (1992), What I Lived For (1994), Blonde(2001), and short story collections The Wheel of Love and Other Stories (1970) and Lovely, Dark, Deep: Stories (2015) were each finalist for the Pulitzer Prize.

Her fans often allege that she has not been awarded the Nobel prize due to her popularity.

Do you have to be a favourite to win?

  • 91% of time the winner has had odds of 10/1 or less at suspension of bets
  • Biggest drop in odds was Herta Müller in 2009 – opened at 50/1, closed at 3/1
  • Biggest drops for someone who didn’t win was Svetlana Alexievich – dropped 50/1 to 4/5 in 2013 (but did go on to win in 2015)
  • Biggest surprise was Doris Lessing in 2007, who won despite opening and closing at 50/1

Source: Ladbrokes

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